Birds Ireland > Features

Predictions for
additions to the Irish list

This article was originally printed in Irish Birding News, Volume 1, number 2, in December 1990.

First, the original article by Kieran Grace...

Introduction
Subscribers to Irish Birding News were invited to enter a competition in August/September 1990, to predict the next five additions to the Irish List.

Response to the competition was very good and this article analyses the entries submitted up to October 9th 1990.

Results
A total of 69 putative additions to the Irish List was submitted. Entries were also received for a number of other species, but these were excluded from the analyses because they had already been recorded in Ireland or the entries were inexact and unclear. The top 22 choices are set out below in order of preference.

1	Species Fanklin's Gull.	% 60
2	Terek Sandpiper.	38
3	Booted Warbler.	26
4	Greater Sandplover, Sardinian Warbler.	19
6	Common Nighthawk, Northern Oriole.	17
8	Marsh Warbler.	15
9	Chimney Swift.	13
10	Western Sandpiper, Yellowthroat, Semipalmated Plover, Isabelline Shrike.	11
14	Isabelline Wheatear, Willet, Sharp-tailed Sandpiper.	9
17	Red-winged Blackbird, Palm Warbler, Wood Thrush, Tennessee Warbler, Canada Warbler, Penduline Tit.	9

The remaining 47 species submitted (which each constituted less than 5% of the valid entries) were as follows, with category 1 receiving a slightly higher percentage than category 2. Names are in alphabetical order.

Category 1
Black-throated Thrush, Cliff Swallow, Crested Tern, Eastern Phoebe, Evening Grosbeak, Lesser Crested Tern, Long-toed Stint, Nutcracker, Pechora Pipit, Purple Martin, Slender-billed Gull, Sooty Tern, Tree Swallow, Wallcreeper, Warbling Vireo.

Category 2
Acadian Flycatcher, Alpine Accentor, American Kestrel, Arctic Redpoll, Bay-breasted Warbler, Blackburnian Warbler, Blue-cheeked Bee-eater, Brown Thrasher, Cardinal, Chestnut-sided Warbler, Cirl Bunting, Eye-browed Thrush, Green Warbler, Harlequin Duck, Hudsonian Godwit, Lark Sparrow, Little Whimbrel, Magnolia Warbler, Naumann's Thrush, Northern Mockingbird, Red-breasted Goose, Rusty Blackbird, Short-toed Treecreeper, Snowy Egret, Southern Giant Petrel, Spanish Sparrow, Spectacled Warbler, Thick-billed Warbler, Two-barred Crossbill, Veery, Willow Tit, Yellow-browed Bunting.

Comments
The top three species received a far greater percentage of votes than the remaining 66 species. In particular, Franklin's Gull received a huge 60% figure. This species has been a long-awaited addition to the Irish List and despite the upsurge in the numbers of birders and increased gull-watching in Ireland in the last ten years, it has failed to materialise. Nonetheless it still remains the most popular choice.

The placing of Terek Sandpiper in second spot is also not surprising given its' almost annual occurrence in Britain since 1971. Such an increase in frequency also occurred in the case of Marsh Sandpiper which was added to the Irish List in 1982. Booted Warbler was the third most popular choice, undoubtedly based on its almost annual occurrence in Britain since 1975.

A number of observations can be made on the entries. 16 of the species (23%) entered concern ones not currently admitted to the full British List while another eight species (12%) concern species for which there is currently only one British record. In this regard the relatively high ratings for Canada Warbler, Palm Warbler, Red-winged Blackbird and Willet are surprising (or extremely optimistic!).

The inclusion of these 24 species (35%) is interesting given the list of other possibilities which have occurred in Britain on two or more occasions. It should be noted that of the 12 most popular choices for additions to the British List (Birding World Vol.3 No.8 pp273-277), five are included in the Irish entries.

A breakdown of the entries by groups also casts an interesting light on how entrants view the perceived 'gaps' in the Irish List. Passerines cover 43 species (10%), waders nine species (13%), near-passerines seven species (10%), gulls and terns five species (7%) and others also five species (7%).

Obviously Irish birders regard passerines as offering the best opportunity for increasing the national list. With 34 of the species submitted (almost 50%) being native to the Nearctic region, Ireland's westerly position in Europe is regarded as a major factor in considering possible additions to the Irish List.

Conclusion
Despite the wide range of species submitted, there are a number of strange omissions. Among those that could have figured in the analyses are this author's 'dark horse' predictions, in alphabetical order.

Collared Flycatcher, Desert Warbler, Green Heron, Hermit Thrush, Nuthatch, Orphean Warbler, Red-flanked Bluetail, River Warbler, Song Sparrow, White-tailed Plover.

Overall the list and ordinal preferences contain few surprises. At least one of the next five 'first Irish' records will probably not be one of the 69 species submitted. One thing is for certain: this author will probably have to eat his words when the next five have been seen.

So how did everyone fare, eleven years on?,,,
Click here to find out...