Birds Ireland > Features > Eleven years later

Eleven years later

Since that article eleven years have passed and 31 new species to Ireland have been seen.

Of these, 21 species were officially added to the Irish List, eight are still awaiting official acceptance and a further two were added, one from the 'splitting' of Balearic Shearwater, the other an established population of Mandarin Duck in Co. Down.

Of the 22 most popular predictions, the following species were recorded;

	Species
1	Fanklin's Gull	Three records
2	Terek Sandpiper	One record
3	Booted Warbler	None
4	Greater Sandplover	None
4	Sardinian Warbler	Two records
6	Common Nighthawk	One record *
6	Northern Oriole	None
8	Marsh Warbler	Two records
9	Chimney Swift	Five records *
10	Western Sandpiper	Three records
10	Yellowthroat	None
10	Semipalmated Plover	None
10	Isabelline Shrike	None
14	Isabelline Wheatear	One record
14	Willet	None
14	Sharp-tailed Sandpiper	Two records
17	Red-winged Blackbird	None
17	Palm Warbler	None
17	Wood Thrush	None
17	Tennessee Warbler	None
17	Canada Warbler	None
17	Penduline Tit	None

* Still pending official acceptance.

Thus, of the leading 22 predictions only nine were correctly anticipated.

Of the Category 1 predictions, only five of 15 were correctly anticipated. Species which have since occurred in Ireland are marked in blue.

Category 1
Black-throated Thrush, Cliff Swallow, Crested Tern, Eastern Phoebe, Evening Grosbeak, Lesser Crested Tern, Long-toed Stint, Nutcracker, Pechora Pipit, Purple Martin, Slender-billed Gull, Sooty Tern, Tree Swallow, Wallcreeper, Warbling Vireo.

Of the Category 2 predictions, only two of the 32 were correctly anticipated (again, marked in blue).

Category 2
Acadian Flycatcher, Alpine Accentor, American Kestrel, Arctic Redpoll, Bay-breasted Warbler, Blackburnian Warbler, Blue-cheeked Bee-eater, Brown Thrasher, Cardinal, Chestnut-sided Warbler, Cirl Bunting, Eye-browed Thrush, Green Warbler, Harlequin Duck, Hudsonian Godwit, Lark Sparrow, Little Whimbrel, Magnolia Warbler, Naumann's Thrush, Northern Mockingbird, Red-breasted Goose*, Rusty Blackbird, Short-toed Treecreeper, Snowy Egret, Southern Giant Petrel, Spanish Sparrow, Spectacled Warbler, Thick-billed Warbler, Two-barred Crossbill, Veery, Willow Tit, Yellow-browed Bunting.

* Still pending official acceptance.

Of the author's 'dark horse' predictions, only one of ten have occurred (they probably have occurred, Kieran. It's just that nobody actually saw them!). They were;

Collared Flycatcher, Desert Warbler, Green Heron, Hermit Thrush, Nuthatch, Orphean Warbler, Red-flanked Bluetail, River Warbler, Song Sparrow, White-tailed Plover.

Of a possible 69 potential additions, a mere 17 were correctly guessed by Irish birders.

The following species have occurred since the article first appeared in 1990, but were not predicted by any of the entrants.
Blue-winged Warbler*
Swinhoe's Petrel*
Great Knot*
Brown Shrike*
Booted Eagle*
Bufflehead
Red-necked Stint
Double-crested Cormorant
Yellow Warbler
Pine Bunting
Bald Eagle
Pallid Swift
Marsh Tit
Thayer's Gull*
Desert Wheatear

* Still awaiting official acceptance

The following 'split' is now officially recognised by the Irish Rare Birds Panel, and have been added to the Irish List.
Balearic ('Mediterranean') Shearwater

The following are established in the wild from feral populations and have been admitted to the Irish List.
Mandarin Duck

Conclusion
Of the possible 69 species predicted by birders in 1990 (79 if you include the author's 'dark horse' predictions), only 17 have been added in the subsequent eleven year period.

It is perhaps remarkable that 15 new species didn't even feature in anyone's prediction.

As the author himself says; "At least one of the next five 'first Irish' records will probably not be one of the 69 species submitted." In fact, two of the first five - Marsh Tit and Desert Wheatear - didn't make it into the list of 69 'possibles'.

And don't forget that there are 62 species listed in this article which Irish birders think are at least possible future additions to the Irish List. Never mind all the future 'splits' and, the few genuine surprises which will undoubtedly occur. Who, for instance would have predicted two Irish records of Elegant Tern?

The only predictable thing about 'first Irish records' it seems, are their unpredictability.

Many thanks to all who submitted their predictions in 1990, and of course to Kieran Grace for writing the original article.